Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
